Not only were the experts wrong in their predictions that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency, they were wrong about the immediate consequences of a Trump victory.
Dartmouth economics professor Eric Zitzewitz estimated, “if Clinton wins it [the stock market] should be up about 3 percent and if Trump wins, it should go down 7 percent. There’s no question in my mind that the markets have not priced in a Trump win,” he continued.
The financial industry predicted much of the same. British bank Barclays predicted the S&P 500 would lose 11-13 percent if Trump won, but would rise 2-3 percent if Hillary won. Citibank predicted a 5 percent dropoff under a Trump victory. J.P. Morgan predicted a 3 percent rise following a Hillary victory, compared to markets “falling further” if Trump won.
For a brief point in time, it seemed like they were right. As it became clear that Trump was going to win the election, the futures market quickly went into turmoil. Futures on the Dow Jones Index showed a 800-point loss as panic took hold.
But how did it end the way? By recovering all those overnight losses – and setting a record.
As the Washington Examiner reported:
Markets clawed back most of the losses seen overnight as traders reacted to Donald Trump‘s surprise victory, and almost all of the dive in stock futures was reversed before U.S. stock markets opened.
Although markets demonstrated significant volatility, the odds of a worst-case scenario of a fallout more dire than the Brexit reaction appeared to have diminished. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened the day slightly up, after tumbling as much as 750 points, or well over 4 percent, overnight.
Many global equities markets followed a similar pattern. Steep losses in the Japanese Nikkei 225 index were significantly pared back by the start of the business day in the U.S.
hit an an all-time high Wednesday, reversing a massive drop triggered by President-elect Donald Trump’s improbable win.