History Professor Allan Lichtman of American University in Washington has accurately predicted the popular result in presidential elections since President Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale in 1984.
Although the number of ballots cast by voters for each candidate counts, it does not ultimately determine who takes the White House. Due to our electoral college system, it’s the electoral votes that count in the end.
While Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” analysis predicts a popular victory by Trump, some other models, such as FiveThirtyEight’s and The New York Times’, have given Hillary Clinton a large probability of victory. The website electionbettingodds.com is another predictor commonly used, which aggregates the betting odds from various gambling sites on the election. Right now they predict a 74.4% change Hillary will win – though that’s down 8% today due to the FBI reopening the investigation into her email server.
For the past few months, Lichtman been predicting a Donald Trump victory.
After recent scandal (more specifically, the 2005 Access Hollywood tape, and sexually assault claims), Trump has dropped in the polls, and the betting odds. But are his campaigns days numbered?
Not according to Lichtman. He told the Washington Post today that he’s still predicting a Trump victory. And he’s hardly the only one making such a prediction. Another political scientist with a history of accurate predictions, professor Helmut Norpoth, also is predicting a Trump victory.
As the Young Cons reported:
his year, he steadfastly believes Donald Trump will win the election.
Norpoth said he uses two “models” to make his prediction:
One is the “primary” model, where he compares a candidate’s strength in their respective primaries.
Norpoth’s second model is called “swing of the pendulum.”
He’ll explain in the clip below…
Think Hillary has this election in the bag? That couldn’t be further from the truth.
The media is pushing the narrative that a Hillary Clinton win is inevitable so that Republicans don’t even bother and go out to the polls in November. The media – and the Hillary campaign, are in for one hell of a surprise this November.