Most political hacks would agree that if Hillary Clinton take North Carolina in the election it will be very hard for Donald Trump to beat her. To earn the White House, Trump would need to win every other competitive state. 2 weeks ago the NYT reported Hillary leading Trump by 7 points. But those optimistic numbers are quickly fading away as unexpected early voters are showing up at the polls and Democrats are very worried.
CNN compared the 2012 performance of Obama in North Carolina with Hillary’s. Clinton is underperforming Obama’s 2012. On the other side Trump is out performing Mitt Romney’s 2012 numbers.
1. Less Democrats have cast ballots in North Carolina than in 2012 but MORE Republicans have voted early by the tens of thousands.
2. 42% more Independent voters have come out to vote than last Presidential election.
3. While Hillary shows a commanding lead among blacks, there are 5% less showing up than in 2012.
4. Early white voters have increased by 22% and tend to lean toward Trump. Having the NC Republican party bragging about the turnout saying that the “North Carolina Obama coalition is crumbling.”
5. One third of 20-something Democrats have failed to show up which is far cry from Obama’s youth support in 2012.
6. Three quarters of early Republican twenty-something showed up again this election. While there was a slight decrease it is still tremendously greater than young Dems.
Another important state for the Democrats to tie down this election is Florida. A whopping one-in-four early voters, is a first-time voter in the state. That number alone makes it incredibly difficult to predict Florida because first time voters are untested. Additionally, Florida has had explosive turnouts with Hispanic voters as one third of the early Hispanic votes did not vote in last election cycle. An important note is that the Hispanic vote isn’t predictably pro-Hillary as a large portion of the Hispanics in FL are from the Caribbean… they tend to lean mo9re conservative and don’t have the non-legal immigrant status that you would see in the border states. But they only make up for 14.8% of the vote and may not make a notable contribution to either side.
Florida and North Carolina might surprise us all in this election and the Liberals are very worried about losing this control.