via CT: Professor Helmut Norpoth is the latest to try to tell billionaire businessman Donald Trump’s political future with a statistical model he perfected at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University.
Norpoth says that current GOP front-runner Donald Trump had a 97 percent chance to beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Sen. Bernie Sanders, should he secure the Republican nomination.
“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent (of the popular vote),” Norpoth said. “This is almost too much to believe. The probability of that is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost ‘Take it to the bank.’”
Without Trump, he claimed a 61 percent overal chance that Republicans would win the White House. Specifically though, he said that his model predicted Hillary Clinton would beat both Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio by 0.3 percent in a head-to-head general election face-off.
Going back to 1912, Norpoth’s model has accurately predicted the winner 96.1 percent of the time, with the election of John F. Kennedy in 1960 being the sole exception to his otherwise flawless model.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” he said Stoney Brook’s school newspaper, The Statesman. He added that Donald Trump must get the nomination for his prediction to be accurate.
What was missing from Professor Norpoth’s crafty guesswork was the odds of Trump winning that nomination.
Predicting a loss for Cruz or Rubio certainly makes Trump seem more desirable as a candidate to many Republicans set on keeping a Democrat out of the White House after President Barack Obama’s disastrous presidency.