So far insurgent businessman Donald Trump has been running away with the Republican primary elections. The question on the minds of Republicans is whether anyone can prevent him from becoming the Republican nominee for president. As the nation moves toward Super Duper Tuesday on March 1, there are important differences that may act to narrow the race and put the brakes on Trump.
The first game changer is the departure of Jeb Bush. Marco Rubio is expected to be the primary beneficiary of Jeb’s departure since the two were competing for the same pool of Republican voters. If the combined totals of Rubio and Bush from South Carolina were applied to Rubio, he would have been in a near tie with Donald Trump instead of Ted Cruz. This may have resulted in Rubio winning some delegates, which were apportioned by congressional district in South Carolina.
The second game changer is that that the nature of the primaries changes on March 1. Up to this point, second tier candidates could stay in the race and reasonably hope to win delegates because most of the primaries were based on proportional representation. If you won 10 percent of the vote, you won 10 percent of the delegates.
On March 1, that changes. Thirteen states are holding primaries and caucuses on March 1 and 10 of these states have a minimum threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. In most cases, the threshold would mean that John Kasich and Ben Carson would be unlikely to receive any delegates from most states even because they are polling at less than 10 percent. Massachusetts is the only state with a threshold less than 10 percent and Virginia has no threshold. These and the caucus states of North Dakota and Wyoming are the only states where Carson and Kasich have a chance of winning a single delegate. After March 1, they will be hopelessly behind and will probably drop out.
Who benefits from dropouts?
As the field of candidates dwindles, Cruz and Rubio have more to gain than Trump. An NBC News/Survey Monkey poll in early February asked about the second choice of Republican voters. Cruz and Rubio were the top second choices of most Republicans. Specifically, Rubio was the strong second preference of Bush and Kasich voters while Carson voters split between Trump and Cruz with Rubio running a close third. While the poll includes several candidates that have already dropped out and is slightly dated for such a dynamic election cycle, the indication is that Rubio would have the most to gain as more candidates drop out.
Trump’s weakness may be that in most cases he is restricted to about a third of the vote. Roughly two-thirds of Republicans have consistently voted against Trump and Real Clear Politics polling shows that this seems to be holding true in most upcoming primaries. For the first half of March, Cruz, Trump and Rubio could be in something close to a three-way dead heat.
Super Duper and Super Tuesdays
On Super Tuesday, March 15, there is another shift. Many primaries after this point are winner-take-all. The big prizes are Florida, Illinois and Ohio. It is fair to assume at this point that Trump will take these delegates.
In another Super Tuesday primary, Missouri is winner-take-all if a candidate receives more than 50 percent. If not, delegates are awarded by congressional district. This may be similar to Trump’s sweep of South Carolina in which he lost some counties and precincts, but won all congressional districts with less than 50 percent of the vote.
The key for Rubio and Cruz will be to seize the momentum from Donald Trump on March 1 and win large shares of delegates in the Super Duper Tuesday states. If they can make a strong enough showing to take away the sense of inevitability surrounding Trump then they may be able to build enough support to deny Trump victory in the winner-take-all states, including Rubio’s home state of Florida, beginning on March 15.
The delegate fight
The ultimate winner of the Republican nomination must win a majority of the 2,470 convention delegates. The magic number to clinch the nomination is 1,237 delegates. To put that in perspective, Trump currently has only 81 delegates after the Nevada caucuses, six percent of the requirement. Another 565 delegates are at stake on March 1.
Rubio and Cruz appear to be evenly matched with Rubio holding a slight lead in many states. The combined total of Rubio and Cruz votes is greater than Trump’s share, but it is apparent that the two are splitting the conservative, anti-Trump vote. Either would probably beat Trump if the other were to drop out, but with both in the race it is difficult, if not possible, for either to gain the advantage. At this point neither seems likely to drop out.
If neither Cruz nor Rubio is able to win the nomination outright, they may still be able to prevent Donald Trump from winning a majority of the delegates. With more than half of the states distributing delegates proportionally, splitting the delegates between the three frontrunners may mean that Trump doesn’t have the required number of delegates even if he wins most states. For example, Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucuses, but the victory margin was so slim that he only received one more delegate than Trump and Rubio.
Also making things more difficult for Trump is that not all delegates are up for grabs. Most delegates are bound by the results of the state primary, but a small number of delegates are unbound and free to vote for the candidate of their choosing. If the delegate race is close, the unbound delegates might be a deciding factor. The winning campaigns get to choose some delegates, but others, often party officials, automatically have delegate status. These unbound delegates would probably not vote for an insurgent candidate like Trump.
An additional wrinkle in the nominating process is Rule 40. Rule 40 requires that a candidate win at least eight states. At present it appears that this requirement would be more of a limiting factor for Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. This rule was amended by the Romney campaign in 2012 and may be amended again prior to the 2016 convention.
Contesting the convention
If no candidate wins a majority of the delegates, the result would be a contested convention. In a contested convention, no candidate is nominated on the first ballot. Depending on state rules, delegates are then released to vote for any candidate and the cajoling starts. Additional votes are taken until someone is able to claim a majority.
A contested convention would most likely favor Marco Rubio although it wouldn’t have to nominate one of the declared candidates at all. With Rubio’s support from other elected Republicans and Cruz’s antipathy toward other Republicans, Rubio’s campaign would probably fare better in a contest of coalition building.
Whether Republicans can put the brakes on Trump is an open question at this point. The March 1 primaries are unlikely to settle the issue. If Trump wins high percentages of delegates on March 1 and sweeps the winner-take-all states beginning on March 15, it will be very difficult for Republicans to prevent him from winning the nomination.
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Trump’s Motorcade Just Came To Abrupt Halt In Indiana After What’s Spotted Right Out His Window
President Donald Trump didn’t hold back when he expressed his displeasure with the National Football Lague (NFL) allowing players to kneel during the anthem. This lit a fire under the controversy, leading to more protests and liberals speaking out in support of this divisive message that entitled athletes were sending. It’s been nearly a week of this tug-of-war between right and wrong on this matter that has come to a head in an unexpected way, just inches from Trump’s motorcade today.
The protests have always been about disrespecting our flag and showing a complete lack of appreciation for those who died defending it. If it was simply to bring about “unity” and attention to supposed police brutality in the black community, these players could have shared their opinion on the matter outside of the National Anthem. They wanted the attention and reason to get publicly irate at a perceived problem they brought to the surface and have taken way too far.
Since the president spoke out about their actions, they protests become almost entirely as a way to show hate to the Commander-in-Chief who rightfully addressed the issue. All manner of threats and accusations ensued from there. On Wednesday, he was in Indianapolis when his security detail noticed what someone was doing just inches from the armored vehicles and snapped a picture.
This shot speaks volumes more than what these athletes have been doing all week on their knees. This background behind what brought this man to Trump’s ride sends a stronger message that what he realized he was making.
A black man was on his knee outside the motorcade for a different reason than those in the NFL, based on who he is and what he was holding. While what he had to say was not an opinion that everyone agrees on, there was another message that he didn’t know he was sharing but is the one that really needs to be heard.
The Hill reports:
An Army veteran who took a knee with a folded flag as President Trump’s motorcade passed by him on Wednesday says the president’s criticism of NFL players who kneel during the national anthem is “totally wrong.”
Marvin Boatright told The Huffington Post that he hoped someone in Trump’s motorcade would notice him kneeling while wearing an American Legion hat and holding a folded flag as the motorcade passed by en route to Trump’s speech on tax reform.
“For the commander-in-chief to call our citizens ‘sons of a bitches’ was totally wrong and beneath the dignity of the office that he holds,” Boatright told the Post.
A photo of Boatright kneeling went viral Thursday on Twitter.
A man kneels with a folded U.S. flag as the POTUS motorcade passes him in Indianapolis. (Photo: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst) pic.twitter.com/KrBlzhauai
— Colin Campbell (@colincampbell) September 28, 2017
While it’s Boatright’s opinion to think that what the president said was “totally wrong,” he has the right to feel that way without inciting violence since he did so in a respectable manner when the anthem wasn’t being performed. He knows what it means to honor the flag and respects what it represents while having a difference of opinion too.
The problem has never been people not showing compassion for their convictions or right to express them. It’s always been about a time and place and kneeling protesters knew what they were doing when they disrespectfully did so during our nation’s sacred anthem. It doesn’t make someone racist to expect respect either.
“As a veteran, and as an African-American, we have already and we continue to serve for God and country,” Boatright went on to explain to The Huffington Post. “But you can have a love of God and country and still be against social injustice. You don’t have to separate one from the other.”
While the injustice he speaks of is debatable, given that more black men are shot by other black men than they are by white police officers, he at least sets a good example that you can respect our flag and other people’s opinions while still making the point you say you’re trying to make.
I don’t agree with Boatright on this matter but can agree to disagree with him since he’s had the audacity to express his opinion in a peaceful manner that wasn’t meant as a distraction from honoring our country. He sent a powerful message in his own right and that’s what needs to be recognized by those who do it differently.
Trump can even appreciate this since his words have been twisted to mean something different than how he delivered them. All he wanted was for people to express their opinions in the right time and place, which Boatright did. If unity are what these kneelers are really after, then they can go about advocating for that in a way which actually promotes peace.
Chicago Cop Get Horrible News After His Entire Department Sees What He’s Posing With In Picture
The national anthem protests reached a fever pitch this past weekend when hundreds of NFL players knelt when ‘The Star Spangled Banner’ began to play. This action ignited a social media firestorm with both sides of the argument battling it out online over why these players are being allowed to disrespect our veterans.
Some people claim that this protest is about fighting racial inequality, others argue that it is about police brutality, and then there is the logical option that is just about disrespecting our country and flag. In response, many conservatives have started staging their protests by boycotting the entire NFL season and canceling their NFL subscription channels.
One Chicago police officer wanted to make his feelings clear on where he stood on this anti-American protest. And, just as you would expect this officer has been reprimanded for sharing his “political views,” all while NFL players are treated like they are the second coming of Martin Luther King Jr.
A white Chicago police officer is in trouble today after he posted a picture of himself on Facebook holding the American flag. In the image you can see the officer holding the flag with a sign in front of him that says: “I stand for the anthem,” “I love the American flag” and “I support my president and the 2nd Amendment.”
Of course, there is nothing wrong with this image, but according to Chicago police spokesman Anthony Guglielmi, it violates policy.
Guglielmi states that while officers are on duty, they must refrain from making political statements which is why the officer was reprimanded. So, an officer that says he stands for the National Anthem, loves the American flag, supports the president, and the right to carry is a political statement? These messages are not political but have been our tenets for our country since we were founded.
Now, let’s couple this story with what a political statement actually looks like, shall we?
During the same time frame that this officer shared his love of country, two black officers were busy making a real statement. A black activist by the name of Aleta Clark entered a Chicago police station and asked the cops to kneel and put up a black power fist to protest the brutality of their profession.
Then these officers dared to take a picture of them doing this and post it on social media.
And, of course, the image has quickly gone viral.
Here is more from WSMV:
Two Chicago police officers will be reprimanded after they were photographed kneeling with a civil rights activist in support of nationwide protests.
Activist Aleta Clark posted the photo to her Instagram account Monday showing her kneeling between the two cops, while all three held their fists in the air.
She captioned the photo: “That moment when you walk into the police station and ask the men of color are they against police brutality and racism and they say ‘yes.’”
Clark also said the officers took a knee to back San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
The officers are now facing a reprimand for violating department policy against political activity while on duty, the Chicago Tribune reports.
Mayor Rahm Emanuel said he understands why the department is disciplining the officers, but can also see progress in his community.
“You have a community activist who felt comfortable enough to ask police officers, so the first symbol is we’re making progress on our community relations,” the mayor said.
More than 200 NFL players protested during the National Anthem on Sunday, opting to kneel or sit.
Kaepernick started the movement last year when he decided to take a knee during the anthem to protest police brutality.
For any logical person, it is clear which one is a politically motivated action and one that isn’t, and I will give you hint it isn’t the image with the flag.
The officers kneeling down on one knee with a fist raised is all about a political movement. Hello? Has anyone heard of Black Lives Matter? You know the group that calls for white genocide and the murder of police officers? Seriously, these police officers are actually protesting themselves.
On the hand, the white officer is expressing what we all have before liberal brainwashing took over our beautiful country. At least they are being consistent with their reprimands, but let’s be honest; the gentleman with the flag should be applauded and the other officers suspended. But that would make sense and we live in a world that is upside down.
H/T [ Chicago Tribune ]
NFL Just Received FINAL Blow With AWESOME NEW Pro-America League That’s Stealing ALL Their Fans
When Americans turn on the TV to watch NFL football, the last thing they want is to be bombarded by the anti-American sentiments of “oppressed” millionaires whining about the “injustices” of our country. Over the past couple of weeks nearly-empty stadiums and viewership plummeting into the double digits has spelled disaster for the NFL of things to come, as angry fans prove they can easily find other ways to spend their money and precious time. Now the ladies from the The Legends Football League, formerly known as the Lingerie Football League, is making their sentiments about these protests known, and it will make you proud as hell to be an American.
The NFL has falsely portrayed itself as a patriotic organization, but we’re sadly realizing that’s not the case. The anti-American NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is encouraging these protests to continue, while lambasting outraged fans with the message that we need to “be more understanding” of these racist protests.
In an even uglier week of protests where players are now getting on all-fours pretending to pee like dogs and the continued black power salutes we see black players rendering when the sack white players on the field, the NFL stands to lose billions this season if something quickly isn’t done to stop this insanity. Now the outspoken ladies of the Legends Football League (LFL) is shocking America with their bold message for the NFL, whose stadiums they frequently play at with their female league.
“The LFL recognizes everyone’s First Amendment right to protest, but our nation’s flag and anthem are far too sacred,” the league said. “Too many fellow Americans have made the ultimate sacrifice so that our flag and anthem continue in all its majesty.”
They went on to say they recognize the “blood, sweat, and tears” needed to preserve the ability to raise the flag, and during a recent game, all the ladies joined to salute the flag and all those who have made America “the greatest country in the world.”
Looks like these ladies have a healthy dose of common sense to go along with their incredible athletic ability and good looks. Their defiance to take stand against the NFL is sending shockwaves across America, and these ladies’ games might serve well as a entertainment replacement for the hundreds of thousands of Americans who’ve sworn off watching the NFL forever.
If you’re not a fan yet of the LFL, these chicks are even tougher than most of the whiny protesters in the NFL, and I’m willing to bet most of them could give “oppressed” millionaires like Colin Kaepernick a run for his money. Take a look at a few of these jaw-dropping plays. These ladies can not only inflict a serious hit, but they can take it like a champ as well, all while doing it in skimpy little outfits!
— LEGENDS FOOTBALL (@MyLFL) September 26, 2017
Fan Voted: Favorite WOW Clip of 2017 season pic.twitter.com/PzKGhBsFeV
— LEGENDS FOOTBALL (@MyLFL) September 22, 2017
— LEGENDS FOOTBALL (@MyLFL) September 21, 2017
No doubt the LFL will be raking in an enormous amount of new fans after their patriotic decision to stand for America before their games. It will be fun to watch the NFL lose billions this season, as these protesting athletes as well as NFL officials are turning their backs on their fan-base that’s comprised of America-loving fans. Several days ago, we learned that the NFL is looking to expand these protests even further, as NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is now considering turning the entire month of November into a month for recognizing police brutality and demonizing our cops.
A memo sent to the NFL demanding that they turn November into an “activism awareness month” to protest police in America is being led by Seattle Seahawks’ Michael Bennett, Philadelphia Eagles’ Malcolm Jenkins, Eagles’ Torrey Smith and former NFL player Anquan Boldin. All these players have been very vocal with their protests all year, with Bennett swearing during preseason to continue Colin Kaepernick’s protesting “legacy.”
The NFL has been completely hijacked by race-baiting liberals who are now using America’s favorite pastime as a disgusting platform to spew their anti-American and cop-hating antics. It’s absolutely disgusting that the commissioner of the NFL is choosing to side with these protesters.
It’s refreshing to see these tough ladies taking a stand for what is right, and they rightfully deserve to be in the media spotlight. It’s time we start sharing stories like this, rather than giving these nasty NFL one more second of limelight, and send the clear message that if they want to continue to disprespect our country, they can do it in a stadium with zero fans.
H/T [Young Cons]
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