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Can Trump get to 1,237?

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After Donald Trump’s sweep of the Northeast last night, there is a feeling of inevitability in many quarters. Trump won Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, all with more than 50 percent of the vote. The big question now is: Can Trump get to 1,237 delegates? And a second question is, with Trump winning big victories and racking up delegates, why does he continue to call the system rigged?

 

After the April 26 primaries, the most recent tallies show Trump with 950 delegates. At this point, Ted Cruz and John Kasich are mathematically eliminated from winning the 1,237 delegates needed to be nominated on the first ballot and can only hope to deny Trump a victory.

 

There are 13 primaries and 622 delegates remaining. At first glance, it seems that Trump’s road to the nomination is easy one. He only needs to win 46 percent of remaining delegates. In reality, due to the structure of the Republican primary, it might be more difficult that it seems. Several of the primaries are winner-take-all and Trump will not win all of these.

 

To analyze Trump’s chances, we’ll assume that he takes an average of 45 percent of proportional delegates and examine the probable outcomes of winner-take-all states. Forty-five percent is not an unreasonable number in light of Trump’s past performance and the fact that the race is down to only three candidates. It is also in line with current national polls.

 

The next prize is Indiana on May 3. Indiana is a winner-take-all state with 57 delegates, approximately 20 percent of what Trump needs. Polling shows that the race in Indiana is close. Trump leads by single digits and the deal between Cruz and Kasich may keep Trump from winning. Trump currently needs 287 delegates to clinch the nomination. If Trump wins Indiana, the number will reduced to 230.

 

On May 10, Nebraska and West Virginia hold primaries. Nebraska is winner-take-all with 36 delegates and West Virginia is proportional with 34 delegates. There is no recent polling in either state, but Nebraska would probably lean toward Cruz and West Virginia toward Trump. Assuming 15 delegates for Trump from West Virginia, he would need 215 more.

 

On Tuesday, May 17, Oregon holds its primary. The only poll available is a year old and does not show Trump in the race. Cruz, however, has performed well in other western states. The state’s 28 delegates will be award proportionally. If Trump keeps his ratio of 45 percent, he would win about 13 delegates and need 202 more.

 

Washington’s primary is on May 24. The state’s 44 delegates will be awarded proportionally. There is no polling available in Washington. Forty-five percent of the delegates would net Trump about 20 and leave him needing an additional 182.

 

June 7 is the last multistate primary day. The biggest prize is California with 172 delegates to be awarded proportionally. Current polling shows Trump at about 45 percent in California. He should win about 78 delegates and leave the state needing 104 more.

 

On the same day, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota hold winner-take-all primaries. Trump would probably take New Jersey’s 51 delegates, but lose in Montana and South Dakota. New Mexico also holds a proportional primary on June 7. Cruz led by one point in New Mexico in a February poll, but ceded the state to Kasich in the deal between the two candidates. After winning New Jersey, Trump will only need 53 delegates. Even if he wins all of New Mexico’s 24 delegates, an impossibility, he will fall just short of the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination.

 

This explains why Trump calls the system rigged. He knows that even with his commanding lead in delegates and all the other candidates mathematically eliminated, the odds are against him amassing enough delegates to win the nomination on an uncontested first ballot.

 

Conventional wisdom holds that, as delegates begin to be unbound after first ballot, Trump’s chances of winning the nomination will diminish. Some delegates may initially be bound to vote for Trump, but actually support other candidates. After the first ballot, Trump’s much-touted negotiating skills will be required to convince his delegates not to flip to another candidate and to win other delegates to put him over the top. Considering Trump’s unpopularity with most of the party, this is unlikely.

 

Can Trump get to 1,237? It is possible, but not likely. He would need to maintain and even build on his momentum. Trump needs to win the winner-take-all states of Indiana and New Jersey as well as take about 55 percent of the remaining proportional delegates. This would mean doing much better in western states than he has done previously. Because Trump can see that it is unlikely that he will be the nominee, even though he will enter the convention with the most delegates, he charges that the system is rigged.

 

 

 

 

 

David W. Thornton is a freelance writer and commercial pilot. He writes from the perspective of a conservative Christian and economic libertarian. He is a graduate of the University of Georgia and Emmanuel College. A native of Georgia, he currently lives in Villa Rica with his wife and two children. An archive of his work can found at his syndicated blog, CaptainKudzu.com. David can be contacted at [email protected]

Politics

Obama Started Bashing Trump Today, And Instantly Everyone Noticed Something Was Seriously Wrong With Him

Hope this isn’t contagious!

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Obama is at it again. Working on dividing the country just a bit more. It’s bad enough the media has become unhinged and fake, do we need Obama of all people interfering with the government? As if he hasn’t done enough damage as it is.

His list of damage to the United States goes on and on, almost 8 years of destruction and now the United States is divided like never before.

He got the country so far in debt, he almost doubled it, at $19 trillion. He allowed and empowered groups like Black Lives Matter to run amuck. He always wanted more gun control and take away the rights of law-abiding citizens to be able to own firearms. He wouldn’t even announce who the United States was at war with, referring to the Islamic State. He has made dangerous deals, one for example, the uranium deal with the Russians. Yet now with a Republican President, everyone is talking about Russia but ignored that fact.

Second, the world’s most dangerous, irresponsible deal in the history of mankind. The Iranian nuclear deal. Giving billions of American dollars to a regime that calls for the destruction of America on a regular basis. He gave more leeway to this same regime that has no problem building nukes. Obamacare was another fail in his legacy that President Trump is trying to fix.

Watch Obama and see if you can spot what’s wrong with him.

Via Liberty Writers:

Barack Obama is one of the most divisive President’s in US history… easily. After Obama, our race relations are worse than they have ever been

Barack Obama: Some, some of the politics we see, now we, we thought we put that to bed. Uh-I-uh-mean that-uh-that folks lookin… fifty years back. It’s the 21st century.”

Uh-uh-uh-uh-uh… Obama needs to start reading his damn speeches. He can’t even read them off a teleprompter without stuttering and stammering like a squirrel on steroids.

It’s crazy that this man has the gall to attack anyone for being divisive. 

A little more about Obama’s failings via CNS News:

Let’s take a look at President Obama’s economic legacy.

The Washington Examiner opines on President Obama’s remarkable claim that he saved the world economy.

“President Obama … wants to be remembered for … [being] … the savior of the American and global economies. ‘There are things I’m proud of,’ he said, citing Obamacare, then added, ‘Saving the world economy from a Great Depression, that was pretty good.’”

Not so fast. Looking at the economy’s anemic numbers the editors are less than impressed.

“Obama will end eight years in office without presiding over a thriving economy of the sort America enjoyed in the past. It also suggests that even the mediocre growth of recent years depended on high oil prices, which have collapsed by more than half. This is the bitter fruit of creationist economics, the erroneous belief that government activity can somehow conjure new wealth and value.”

The Wall Street Journal is similarly dour about Obama’s economic legacy.

“When did Americans decide that 1% or 2% economic growth is acceptable, that puny wage increases are inevitable, and that we should all merely shrug and get used to the country’s diminished expectations? … the first quarter is further evidence of what has been the weakest economic expansion in the postwar era. … All of this continues the slow-or-slower pace of this entire expansion that began nearly seven years ago. Each year has had a similar GDP dip, and growth has never exceeded 2.5% (2010). The American economy hasn’t grown by more than 3% since 2005 (3.3%), the longest such stretch of malaise that we can find in the Bureau of Economic analysis tables going back to 1930. … Faster growth is possible, but it will take better policies.”

In a column for Bloomberg, Narayana Kocherlakota, looks at what’s happened and compares it to what CBO projected would happen.

“[I]t’s not hard to see why many people are disappointed with the performance of the economy during Obama’s time in office. In January 2009, at the beginning of Obama’s first term, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office issued a 10-year forecast for the U.S. economy, including such indicators as unemployment, gross domestic product, the budget deficit, government debt and interest rates. … The unemployment rate has come closest to expectations. … Elsewhere, the story is less positive. Total income growth in the U.S. has fallen well short of expectations, in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. … the federal budget deficit … still much larger than the CBO forecast in 2009 — as is the ratio of government debt to GDP.”

Even with all of these failures, he still can’t seem to stay out of politics and trying to meddle in elections across the country. Then again, he did meddle with Israel’s election so I am not surprised he is not finished with America. I hope President Trump will remain vigilant along with his administration. They are doing an outstanding job within the short amount of time in office. Lots of accomplishments are being made, and promises are being set.

Keep up the great work President Trump.

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Culture

Michelle Tries To Convince Crowd That She’s A ‘Sex Symbol’ – Gets Wrecked Instead

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Barack and Michelle have had quite a hard time relinquishing the power they once held ever since the Trumps took over at the White House. As Obama remains obsessed with trolling President Trump with his “shadow government,” Michelle has been obsessed with maintaining the media spotlight she once held as First Lady, where she’s been frantically booking up interviews and public appearances to compete with the beautiful and sweet Melania. But shortly after Michelle decided to tout herself as America’s “sex symbol,” her ridiculous claim has now come back to haunt her, after the American people who have finally had enough of her revolting lies are making their voices known.

After spending the last 8 years race-baiting and blasting our country alongside her treasonous American-hating husband, Michelle is trying desperately to maintain her relevance in American society, which is proving just like her school lunch programs, to be a massive failure. Several weeks ago, rather than slipping into obscurity like we had hoped, Michelle helped host ESPN’s ESPY awards, where just the mere sight of her ugly mug resulted in millions of viewers turning off the show. Breitbart reports the awards show resulted in a historic new low in viewership for ESPN, leaving Michelle embarrassed and licking her wounds. But in her latest pathetic effort to be important, the backlash from Americans this time is massive, and will leave you laughing your ass off.

In a recent interview while bragging about her “accomplishments” as First Lady, Michelle touted herself as America’s “sex symbol,” claiming that she has issues simply walking down the street because men barely can barely contain their lust at the mere sight of her.

“As I got older, I found that men would whistle at me or make comments about how I looked as I walked down the street,” saying that men would routinely cat call as she walked by. “As if my body were their property. As if I were an object to be commented on instead of a full human being with thoughts and feelings of my own.”

The words had barely left her fat lying mouth and people across America were already questioning what alternate reality Michelle Obama resides in where she seriously thinks she’s America’s “sex symbol.” Here’s some of the most politically incorrect responses that were posted in response to Michelle’s claim:

“What sex and what species? Maybe a Congress of Baboons or Silverbacks. Pesky liberals and Democrats, if it is not dead people for votes in a poll, then it is raiding the zoo.”

“More like an abstinence symbol, I think.”

“These people are totally delusional – Obama thinks he’s a straight guy born in Hawaii that did a great job as President – WRONG. Michael thinks he is a woman who was the best first lady every and is a sex symbol in America – WRONG. These two guys need help – they are living in a fantasy world.”

“There is not enough alcohol or drugs available that could ever make Manchelle Obama a sex symbol. That would be like dragging your balls across 5 miles of broken glass just to hear Michael Moore fart in a payphone.”

“Her poor attitude and condescending arrogance is a symbol for abstinence. A person’s charm is what attracts. She is disgusting. Every parent of a horny teenage boy should make certain he has a picture Michelle in his wallet next to the Trojan.”

“Sex symbol? ROFLMAO OMG YOU’RE KILLING ME!”

“She may be a sex symbol on the planet the Predator came from.”

“She is a sex symbol….a symbol for not wanting sex. Picture her every time you look at someone and you definitely won’t want sex.”

“I think I just up threw up in my mouth and shit my self laughing to hard.”

“First, if she’s a sex symbol, what does that make Melania? And in all seriousness, she could be the most beautiful person on the planet, but to me, she’s ugly on the inside.”

It’s truly startling how huge Michelle Obama’s ego is, which apparently has grown exponentially since she left the White House. Sorry Michelle, there’s lots of things you can claim about yourself, but sex symbol is not one of them. Now if you want to tout yourself as the “most race-baiting” or the “most anti-American first lady in American history,” then THAT is claim that the American people can rally behind!

H/T [America Now]

 

 

 

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Mom Shares Pic Of Girl Dressed As Melania And Everyone Immediately Noticed ONE Thing

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Michelle Will Be FURIOUS When She Sees How Mom Dressed Her Daughter For School’s First Lady Project

An Alabama elementary school teacher assigned her class a presentation project to depict their favorite First Lady. Students were allowed to choose any FLOTUS in history and for whatever reason they wanted, so long as they explained why they picked who they did. One mother took this as an opportunity to get especially creative in helping her daughter put on what was arguably the best demonstration for this assignment that former First Lady Michelle Obama probably didn’t appreciate.

The 8-year-old unnamed student wasn’t told who to pick for her project, she came up with the idea on her own and talented mother helped her achieve it. The end result is the picture of parenting well done, but more importantly, it’s the message that many in America are missing, delivered by a little girl.

Having learned about many notable First Ladies leading up to this project, the little girl chose our current FLOTUS, Melania Trump, as her favorite. The image that apparently stood out to her as the most impressive, was Melania’s Inauguration Day look when she donned a classic “Jackie O” style. Her mother helped her recreate the recent iconic moment, sewing an ensemble that was impressively identical to Melania’s and styling her daughter’s hair in the same classy, yet understated up-do. However, what she was holding represented a little piece of another FLOTUS as perhaps an underlying message.

The second grader held a Tiffany’s box that was a replica of the gift she gave Michelle Obama when they former First Couple greeted their replacements at the White House on that Inaugural morning. The response Michelle gave Melania when she handed her the gift, sent shock waves around the country as she seemingly couldn’t control her face or hide her hate the second she accepted it.

Michelle probably doesn’t like that her time as FLOTUS didn’t leave an impression on the young generation enough for this girl or anyone else to have picked her to honor. What’s most impressive is not only how perfect this little girl looked as Melania but that we finally have a First Lady that girls can look up to and be inspired by.

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