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Why a hard line on immigration might cost Republicans the White House



Amid the Republican battle on illegal immigration and deportation of illegal immigrants, the effect of immigration policy on the general election is lost. The general election will likely hinge on the outcome of a handful of swing states, most of which were won by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. In order to win the White House, the Republican candidate must flip the states of Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Colorado as well as win North Carolina, which was won by Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.

The hardline stance of several Republican candidates in the primary is almost certain to make it difficult or impossible for them to win these swing states in the general election. Losing even one of these states would put Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in the White House. To understand why immigration may kill the chance of electing a Republican president, let’s take a closer look at the State of Florida.

The Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank, recently published estimates of the racial and ethnic composition of swing state electorates. The group estimates that the largest minority voter group in Florida will be Hispanics with an estimated 20.2 percent of the electorate. Blacks are projected to increase to 15.5 percent of voters and Asians to 2.2 percent.

Pew Research puts the share of Hispanic voters for 2016 slightly lower at 18.1 percent. In either case, the Hispanic share of the electorate is steadily increasing. Exit polling also reported by Pew found that Hispanics made up 17 percent of Florida voters in 2012 and 14 percent in 2008 so a 2016 share of 18-20 percent is realistic.

While all minority groups are growing in the state, Hispanics make up the fastest growing group. In this year’s election, minority voters are likely to make up between 35 and 38 percent of the electorate. This would be a substantial increase over the 33 percent they represented in 2008.

Who do these groups vote for? Washington Post exit polls show information specifically for Florida for the past two election cycles. As is well established, Obama won virtual unanimity among black voters with 95 percent in 2012 and 96 percent in 2008.

Among Hispanic voters, Obama won a less commanding majority. In 2008, Obama won the Hispanic vote by 57 percent to John McCain’s 42 percent. In 2012, the total was practically the same with Obama at 60 percent and Mitt Romney at 39 percent. In Florida, Romney lost by 74,309 votes out of 8.4 million votes cast. That is a margin of 0.8 percent.

Many observers believe that Romney lost the race with a comment in a primary debate in January 2012. In that debate, Romney stated that his plan for dealing with illegal immigrants was “self-deportation.” The election could have easily turned on the feeling of many Hispanics that Romney and the Republicans didn’t like them and didn’t want them in the country.

If Hispanics respond to an innocuous remark in a debate with a landslide for Democrats, the question that needs to be addressed is how they would respond to a policy of mass deportations and the elimination of birthright citizenship. Many conservatives believe that Hispanics and other legal immigrants will back conservative candidates with a hard line on illegal immigration because they resent the illegals who don’t wait their turn. Is this belief supportable by fact?

In August 2015, a Gallup poll found that two-thirds of Americans support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Among Hispanics, support for what some Republicans call “amnesty,” runs even higher. Seventy-seven percent of Hispanics favor a pathway to citizenship for illegals.

On the issue of birthright citizenship, most Americans favor keeping the Constitution and birthright citizenship as is by a margin of 57-39 percent according to an August 2015 Pew poll. Among Hispanics, 73 percent oppose trying to end birthright citizenship.

The same poll found that 72 percent of Americans believe that illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the United States. Only 17 percent favor a national effort to deport all illegals. The survey did not give statistics on the question for Hispanics, but did note that 60 percent of Hispanics saw an increase in deportations as a bad thing and that 46 percent were concerned that a close friend or family member could be deported.

For most Americans, immigration reform is not an important issue. Last week, Gallup found that the economy was the most important issue for most voters at 17 percent. Ten percent of voters name immigration as the most important problem, placing it in a tie for third place with jobs and unemployment.

Hispanic voters agree that the economy and jobs are the most important issues according to a Univision poll from last July. Unlike most voters, Hispanics rank immigration as another “hot button” issue.

“A lot of individuals and a lot of people in the Hispanic community feel that the extreme right-wing, anti-immigration rhetoric tends to be code for anti-Hispanic rhetoric, and that’s why it has such traction,” said pollster Fernand Amandi. He added, “On the question of a pathway to citizenship, Hispanic voters that we asked say that the majority are more likely to support a candidate for president that advocates for a position that includes a pathway to citizenship, when it comes to a comprehensive immigration reform plan.”

Using the “Swing the Vote” tool from Five Thirty Eight, we can see that a shift of the Hispanic vote by three points nationally would move Florida to the Republican column. Specifically, in 2012, Obama won Florida by 74,309 votes. That means that flipping only 2.6 percent of Florida’s Hispanic vote would have flipped the state to Romney.

Winning 43 percent of Hispanics should not be an unattainable goal for Republicans. George W. Bush won 44 percent of Hispanics nationally as recently as 2004. Chris Christie won the Hispanic vote outright in New Jersey, a solidly blue state, in 2013.

The immigration vote will be important in other swing states as well. Colorado has a Hispanic electorate that, at 15 percent in 2012, is almost as large as Florida’s. Virginia and Ohio have fewer Hispanics, but have large immigrant populations, many of whom are naturalized and can vote. These voters can be reasonably expected to oppose candidates with policies that they perceive as anti-immigration and unfriendly.

The American Immigration Council estimates that almost five percent of Ohio’s population are immigrants. About half of these Ohioans are naturalized and eligible to vote. About two percent of Ohioans were Hispanic. This is 60 percent of Obama’s margin of victory in 2012.

In Virginia, the AIC statistics show that immigrants make up 11 percent of the population. About nine percent of these are Hispanic. Again, half of these Virginians are US citizens who are eligible to vote. Again, this is more than half of Barack Obama’s margin of victory.

Almost all swing states have Hispanic and immigrant populations that could easily be decisive in the 2016 general election. By focusing on the divisive issue of immigration rather than topics that unite voters against the Democrats, Republican candidates may be making it impossible to win the election in November.

David W. Thornton is a freelance writer and commercial pilot. He writes from the perspective of a conservative Christian and economic libertarian. He is a graduate of the University of Georgia and Emmanuel College. A native of Georgia, he currently lives in Villa Rica with his wife and two children. An archive of his work can found at his syndicated blog, David can be contacted at [email protected]


Everyone In U.S. Who Has Illegals Employed Right Now Just Got The WORST News Of Their Lives

It’s happening!



One of the huge problems that Americans face today is what to do about the illegals. Even though many have integrated into society, blending in as if they belong, many are still hopping the fence or swimming the river just to drain the taxpayers’ coffers and enjoy the land of the free and home of the brave without standing in line.

While there have been many plans floated as to how to deal with the problem, the one that makes the most sense is to stop incentivizing the lawbreakers and those who facilitate them. In order to do that, Immigrations and Customs Enforcement have to make sure that business owners aren’t taking advantage of an illegal’s undocumented status and paying them under the table for jobs that they would have to pay others more for.

According to The Washington Examiner, that’s exactly what they’re planning to do. ICE will be investigating employers and making sure that our illegal population starts to have less incentive to break the law by living here and getting a job on the down low:

“U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is prepared to criminally prosecute illegal immigrants in the workplace, as well as those employers who hire them.

‘While we focus on the criminal prosecution of employers who knowingly hire illegal workers, under the current administration’s enforcement priorities, workers encountered during these investigations who are unauthorized to remain in the United States are also subject to administrative arrest and removal from the country,’ ICE spokeswoman Danielle Bennett said in an email to the Washington Examiner.

Basically, they’re saying that they know people make mistakes, and it’s hard to spot forged papers, but some people are doing this knowingly and intentionally. No doubt ICE has had their eye on some businesses that were aiding illegals but were forced to wait on a law enforcement friendly political climate in order to act on their intel.

“This week, acting ICE Director Thomas Homan said his agency will increase workplace immigration enforcement effort four to five times the level current.

According to Bennett, that includes pursing more investigations and ‘conducting more I-9 audits.’

An I-9 form is used for verifying the identity and employment authorization for someone to be hired to work in the U.S.

Data provided to the Washington Examiner shows that from Feb. 9, 2016, to June 24, 2017, ICE arrested 42 people in management and 55 people in non-management for criminal immigration violations, and all but 15 were indicted and convicted. The highest amount in the past few years was in fiscal 2011 under former President Barack Obama, when ICE arrested 221 people in management and 492 in non-management, for a total of 713 — there has been a relatively steady decline in the years following.

On ICE’s website, it still has policy posted from 2013, which was revised and instituted in 2009 under Obama. That policy aims to target employers that use illegal immigrants as a business model, mistreat their workers, engaged in human smuggling or trafficking, commit identity and benefit fraud, launder money or engage in other criminal activity.

Regardless of the online policy, ICE under the Trump administration said it’s ready to go forward with continued crackdowns on illegal immigration — which was a cornerstone of the president’s campaign.

ICE officials were not able to describe what industries commit the most violations or what states have more violations than others.

‘All businesses, regardless of size, industry or geographic location, are expected to comply with the law,’ Bennett said.”

It’s ludicrous that this was an issue that was ever up for debate, considering that it’s just the simple act of enforcing the law. The United States has laws for the purpose of keeping its citizens safe, but some of those on the liberal side of the spectrum seem to be more interested in importing new voters than protecting the people already here.

These problems are especially prevalent in notoriously liberal states, where everyone is considered a monster if they don’t have a profusely bleeding heart. Downtrend reports that the problem is massive in California especially:

“This isn’t going to go over well in California where cheap illegal alien labor is rampant from produce pickers to Silicon Valley and cries of racism and Nazism will soon be emanating from the Chamber of Commerce and Democrat politicians who run the state with an iron fist.

ICE’s efforts will be a big help in improving the employment prospects of Americans but they also must be coupled with a federal crackdown on the H1-B visas that have allowed the leftist kooks who run all of the biggest social media and internet companies to bring in cheap overseas labor and screw American workers.

An increase in enforcement against the employers of the illegals is yet another message that there is a new sheriff in town.”

No matter what you think about immigrants, we must understand that turning a blind eye to breaking the law will only bring lawbreakers into the safe haven that is the United States. Thankfully President Trump is working hard to untie the hands of law enforcement and make this country safe, and great, once again.

[H/T: The Washington Examiner, Downtrend]

Share if you’re glad that ICE is finally being allowed to do their job! 

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Shocking News On Immigration Here In The U.S.

Chuck Yarling



This past week, Steven Camarota appeared on Fox News show, “Tucker Carlson Tonight”. He presented what can only be described as shocking news on immigration here in the U.S.

Camarota is the Director of Research at the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS). This organization is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit, research organization investigates and reports on immigration.

His report came from his latest article entitled, “U.S. Immigrant Population Hit Record 43.7 Million in 2016”.

That number means that immigrants are now about 15% of our estimated population of 300 million.

Here are some excerpts from Camarota’s report:

The nation’s immigrant population (legal and illegal) hit a record 43.7 million in July 2016, an increase of half a million since 2015, 3.8 million since 2010, and 12.6 million since 2000.

As a share of the U.S. population, immigrants (legal and illegal) comprised 13.5 percent, or one out of eight U.S. residents in 2016, the highest percentage in 106 years. As recently as 1980, just one out of 16 residents was foreign-born.

Between 2010 and 2016, 8.1 million new immigrants settled in the United States.

Mexican immigrants (legal and illegal) were by far the largest foreign-born population in the country in 2016. Mexico is the top sending country, with 1.1 million new immigrants arriving from Mexico between 2010 and 2016, or one out of eight new arrivals.

The largest percentages of growth of immigrants from various regions of the world include 38% from South Asia; 34% from Sub-Saharan Africa; 29% from the Middle East; and 29% from predominantly Muslim countries!

The largest percentages of growth of immigrants into various U.S. states include 48% in North Dakota; 41% in West Virginia; and 20% in Michigan and Nebraska.

If think these numbers are shocking, try this: the current immigration number reported as 43.7 million means that immigration has doubled since 1990, tripled since 1980, and quadrupled since 1970!

Now here is the scary part of Camatora’s report: if we keep the current rate of allowing immigrants into the U.S., the 43.7 million will become 47.9 million in 2020; 56.9 million in 2030; 65.1 million I 2040; 72.3 million in 2050; and 78.2 million in 2060.

And these numbers relate to incoming immigrants only and does not consider their children or grandchildren!

The question that needs to be asked is this:

”Is it in the best interests of our country to continue this rate of immigration?”

If you believe the answer to this question is no, then you need to contact your representatives and senators in Congress and let them know of your concern. You can do that by going to this website and referring Camarota’s report in your letters or email messages.

Now hop to it!

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ICE Just Raided Cher’s Transgender Kid, DISGUSTING Find Made Inside Is WAY Worse Than We Thought



ICE Just Raided Cher's Tranny Kid, DISGUSTING Find Made Inside Is WAY Worse Than We Thought

Cher has seen her day in the spotlight for years as a successful singer but has since slipped into obscurity after her liberal views and gender confused kid got the best of her career. Having been so outspoken about our current administration just backfired on her, when her daughter, now her son, just got raided by ICE who made a discovery that’s going to have a nasty ripple effect throughout all of Hollywood.

Cher’s oldest child, Chaz Bono, who was born a female named Chastity Bono, apparently had far more hiding in the closet than just his/her gender identity issues. The singer’s spawn is now making demands she’s not entitled to as President Trump is in charge and doesn’t care about what she thinks she needs when she’s actively breaking the law, and her mother’s status can’t get her out of this one.

Bono saved a few bucks or perhaps attempted to be a social justice warrior, in hiring a staff of illegal housekeepers to keep this entitled transvestite comfortable in her own home. When the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) showed up to deport the illegal “help” to the housekeeper, Bono pitched a royal fit in the only way celebrities and their kids know how to do — on Twitter, as Biz Pac Review reported.

“My housekeeper’s helper along with husband & children were arrested by ICE. @JerryBrownGov What R you doing about this?” Chaz had the audacity to ask on the social media site.

She’s completely clueless of the cause and is making demands for her housekeeper’s “hired help” — which means her housekeeper was paid in such substantial amount that the the help was able to afford hiring their own “help.” Unfortunately for this entitled transvestite, she/he had to learn the hard way that just because you think you deserve something, doesn’t mean you’re going to get it, especially if you openly admit to hiring illegal immigrants not just as housekeeping, but non-essential staff to your housekeepers.

Where there is one illegal housekeeper in Hollywood employed, there are likely far more, and you can pretty much guarantee that this is just the tip of the “ICE”-berg for arrests. Trump is about to hit all those liberal elites in Tinsel Town where it hurts since until it came to their illegal help, they were largely unaffected by the changes and only want to appeal to their audience they trashed Trump to.

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