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Why a hard line on immigration might cost Republicans the White House



Amid the Republican battle on illegal immigration and deportation of illegal immigrants, the effect of immigration policy on the general election is lost. The general election will likely hinge on the outcome of a handful of swing states, most of which were won by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. In order to win the White House, the Republican candidate must flip the states of Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Colorado as well as win North Carolina, which was won by Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.

The hardline stance of several Republican candidates in the primary is almost certain to make it difficult or impossible for them to win these swing states in the general election. Losing even one of these states would put Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in the White House. To understand why immigration may kill the chance of electing a Republican president, let’s take a closer look at the State of Florida.

The Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank, recently published estimates of the racial and ethnic composition of swing state electorates. The group estimates that the largest minority voter group in Florida will be Hispanics with an estimated 20.2 percent of the electorate. Blacks are projected to increase to 15.5 percent of voters and Asians to 2.2 percent.

Pew Research puts the share of Hispanic voters for 2016 slightly lower at 18.1 percent. In either case, the Hispanic share of the electorate is steadily increasing. Exit polling also reported by Pew found that Hispanics made up 17 percent of Florida voters in 2012 and 14 percent in 2008 so a 2016 share of 18-20 percent is realistic.

While all minority groups are growing in the state, Hispanics make up the fastest growing group. In this year’s election, minority voters are likely to make up between 35 and 38 percent of the electorate. This would be a substantial increase over the 33 percent they represented in 2008.

Who do these groups vote for? Washington Post exit polls show information specifically for Florida for the past two election cycles. As is well established, Obama won virtual unanimity among black voters with 95 percent in 2012 and 96 percent in 2008.

Among Hispanic voters, Obama won a less commanding majority. In 2008, Obama won the Hispanic vote by 57 percent to John McCain’s 42 percent. In 2012, the total was practically the same with Obama at 60 percent and Mitt Romney at 39 percent. In Florida, Romney lost by 74,309 votes out of 8.4 million votes cast. That is a margin of 0.8 percent.

Many observers believe that Romney lost the race with a comment in a primary debate in January 2012. In that debate, Romney stated that his plan for dealing with illegal immigrants was “self-deportation.” The election could have easily turned on the feeling of many Hispanics that Romney and the Republicans didn’t like them and didn’t want them in the country.

If Hispanics respond to an innocuous remark in a debate with a landslide for Democrats, the question that needs to be addressed is how they would respond to a policy of mass deportations and the elimination of birthright citizenship. Many conservatives believe that Hispanics and other legal immigrants will back conservative candidates with a hard line on illegal immigration because they resent the illegals who don’t wait their turn. Is this belief supportable by fact?

In August 2015, a Gallup poll found that two-thirds of Americans support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Among Hispanics, support for what some Republicans call “amnesty,” runs even higher. Seventy-seven percent of Hispanics favor a pathway to citizenship for illegals.

On the issue of birthright citizenship, most Americans favor keeping the Constitution and birthright citizenship as is by a margin of 57-39 percent according to an August 2015 Pew poll. Among Hispanics, 73 percent oppose trying to end birthright citizenship.

The same poll found that 72 percent of Americans believe that illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the United States. Only 17 percent favor a national effort to deport all illegals. The survey did not give statistics on the question for Hispanics, but did note that 60 percent of Hispanics saw an increase in deportations as a bad thing and that 46 percent were concerned that a close friend or family member could be deported.

For most Americans, immigration reform is not an important issue. Last week, Gallup found that the economy was the most important issue for most voters at 17 percent. Ten percent of voters name immigration as the most important problem, placing it in a tie for third place with jobs and unemployment.

Hispanic voters agree that the economy and jobs are the most important issues according to a Univision poll from last July. Unlike most voters, Hispanics rank immigration as another “hot button” issue.

“A lot of individuals and a lot of people in the Hispanic community feel that the extreme right-wing, anti-immigration rhetoric tends to be code for anti-Hispanic rhetoric, and that’s why it has such traction,” said pollster Fernand Amandi. He added, “On the question of a pathway to citizenship, Hispanic voters that we asked say that the majority are more likely to support a candidate for president that advocates for a position that includes a pathway to citizenship, when it comes to a comprehensive immigration reform plan.”

Using the “Swing the Vote” tool from Five Thirty Eight, we can see that a shift of the Hispanic vote by three points nationally would move Florida to the Republican column. Specifically, in 2012, Obama won Florida by 74,309 votes. That means that flipping only 2.6 percent of Florida’s Hispanic vote would have flipped the state to Romney.

Winning 43 percent of Hispanics should not be an unattainable goal for Republicans. George W. Bush won 44 percent of Hispanics nationally as recently as 2004. Chris Christie won the Hispanic vote outright in New Jersey, a solidly blue state, in 2013.

The immigration vote will be important in other swing states as well. Colorado has a Hispanic electorate that, at 15 percent in 2012, is almost as large as Florida’s. Virginia and Ohio have fewer Hispanics, but have large immigrant populations, many of whom are naturalized and can vote. These voters can be reasonably expected to oppose candidates with policies that they perceive as anti-immigration and unfriendly.

The American Immigration Council estimates that almost five percent of Ohio’s population are immigrants. About half of these Ohioans are naturalized and eligible to vote. About two percent of Ohioans were Hispanic. This is 60 percent of Obama’s margin of victory in 2012.

In Virginia, the AIC statistics show that immigrants make up 11 percent of the population. About nine percent of these are Hispanic. Again, half of these Virginians are US citizens who are eligible to vote. Again, this is more than half of Barack Obama’s margin of victory.

Almost all swing states have Hispanic and immigrant populations that could easily be decisive in the 2016 general election. By focusing on the divisive issue of immigration rather than topics that unite voters against the Democrats, Republican candidates may be making it impossible to win the election in November.

David W. Thornton is a freelance writer and commercial pilot. He writes from the perspective of a conservative Christian and economic libertarian. He is a graduate of the University of Georgia and Emmanuel College. A native of Georgia, he currently lives in Villa Rica with his wife and two children. An archive of his work can found at his syndicated blog, David can be contacted at [email protected]

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Trump Just Had 199 People Arrested In Secret Overnight Raid After Hearing What They ALL Did! HELL YEAH!




If there’s anything the last almost 36 hours have taught us, it’s that we’re at war within our own country. It’s not because conservatives want to be or have brought cause for this divisive hatred, but because the left can’t handle not having the control they have enjoyed for the last eight years of destruction. President Trump has been the biggest threat to all they hold dear that’s not good for our country and proved just that when he ordered the arrest of 199 people in one particular state. There’s expected to be more soon before he’s done making the necessary point that the U.S. doesn’t tolerate terrorism of any kind.

Citizens of this great nation are under attack from within and it’s coming from a number of directions, one of which revealed itself recently. We’re lucky to have a leader like Trump in charge to stop it before it gets more out of control, but it was two terms of Barack Obama that got us here to begin with. The work that the current Commander-in-Chief has cut out for him is far more complex than he may have thought, but is more than up for the challenge anyway and doing a masterful job at it. This was just seen with the swift and assertive action the president took that resulted in a whopping 199 arrests.

Liberalism isn’t the only “cancer” in the country that seeks to destroy what our forefathers built. The immense refugee program that Obama set up, which set out to bring 100,000 Muslims to America was an invitation to terrorism. What we’re seeing in Europe, with on terror attack after another as a direct result of their open door policy to refugees, is what President Trump is taking action to avoid in America, and has already done a brilliant job at this, starting with the Muslim “Mecca” of America.

The Jerusalem Post reports:

“US immigration authorities have arrested and moved to deport 199 Iraqi immigrants, mostly from the Detroit area, in the last three weeks after Iraq agreed to accept deportees as part of a deal removing it from President Donald Trump’s travel ban, officials said on Wednesday.”

“In the Detroit area, 114 Iraqi nationals were arrested over the weekend, and 85 throughout the rest of the country over the past several weeks, Gillian Christensen, a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement spokeswoman, said in a statement.”

“The actions came as part of the Trump administration’s push to increase immigration enforcement and make countries, which have resisted in the past, take back nationals ordered deported from the United States.”

Dealing with what Obama created in this regard stretches beyond just an immigration ban which Trump has put into place numerous times over to usurp liberals’ efforts to stop it. We already have a lot of the problem here where hate percolates as American taxpayers foot the bill for what will be an inevitable attack from within if we don’t start paying attention to these problems.

Also, before any Democrat or eccentric lefty wants to use this arresting spree as more reason to create hate for Trump or the conservative party, there’s one unfortunate fact about the majority of the deported which you won’t hear on mainstream media.

“The overwhelming majority of those arrested had criminal convictions for crimes including murder, rape, assault, kidnapping, burglary, drug trafficking, weapons violations and other offences,” Gillian Christensen, a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement spokeswoman said, according to MSN.

As expected, the rhetoric has already begun to counter Trump’s offence to terrorism within our own borders, but liberals reporting this sweeping arrest with pictures of crying children. They’re also claiming that Trump is sending persecuted Christians back to their war-torn nations. While there was a few who caught up in the fringe by default of placement and perhaps unfortunate associations, they are a very small minority of the nearly 200 shipped out of the U.S.

While the kids pictured could be collateral damage in this deportation, they are victims too, having been born to parents with criminal intentions in America who will breed them to believe hateful things.

The message Trump is sending is one that’s important for everyone to hear – both those who are here illegally or committing crimes or those who think they can come here and get away with it while feeding off our system. America is a nation of laws and those who refuse to abide by them or make their way into our communities and take over the western way of life, will not be tolerated – they will be shipped out or stopped from coming here.

Please share to spread this message that Trump is sending and to show your support for making America great again 200 fewer refugees at a time. Our president is getting the country back to what we knew it to be before Barack Obama took office and systematically destroyed it.

h/t: [GatewayPundit]

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Muslims In Indiana Are READY to RIOT After Seeing What Massive Sign Says That Popped Up Overnight




It’s rather easy to discover what Muslims really believe, all you have to do is pick up a copy of the Quran and start reading. Contained within Muslims’ holy book you’ll find at least 109 graphic verses that calls on Muslims to go to war with non believers, were followers of Islam are encouraged to chop off of the heads of non-believers, and actively prodded to rape infidel women and take them as slaves. But Muslims always get a little pissy when you point out the truth about their religion, going into rage mode if you happen to mention their holy prophet was actually a war-mongering slave-owning pedophile who took a child as his bride when she was only six-years-old. Now Muslims in Indiana are completely outraged after a billboard was erected by local residents exposing the truth about the man who founded their religion, and they are demanding that it be immediately removed.

Not beating around the bush about the true meaning of Islam, the billboard crafted by the group “Truthophobes” hilariously mocks their prophet Mohammed as “The Perfect Man” where the gigantic billboard then lists out six truth-filled bullet points to describe him. The bullets include: “Married a 6-year-old,” “Slave owner & dealer,” “rapist,” “Beheaded 600 Jews in one day,” “13 wives, 11 at one time” and “Tortured & killed unbelievers.”

Local Muslims instantly got their man dresses and burkas in a collective wad, predictably screaming that the creator of the billboard was a “bigot.”

“I was a little disappointed when I saw that,” Farial Khatri of the Islamic Society of North America told Fox 59. “We do support free speech, but we do realize this is also rooted in bigotry.”

Hilariously, the Muslim Alliance of Indiana plans to raise money to put a billboard up right across the street in order to try counter the  billboard’s truth-filled message, where they plan to plaster a propaganda-filled message about Islam being about “peace and kindness.”

According to Fox 59:

A billboard on the east side of Indianapolis is catching the eyes of drivers, along with the ire of local Muslim groups.

You can spot the sign from the southbound lanes of I-465 near the Washington Street exit. It claims to list the “perfect man,” but opponents say it degrades the Muslim prophet Mohammad.

“I was a little disappointed when I saw that,” said Farial Khatri of the Islamic Society of North America.

Opponents say the billboard’s bullet points are meant to disparage the Muslim faith and its primary prophet, Mohammad.

“We’ve seen them in New York and several others cities on billboards as well as other transit ads,” said Kahtri.

There’s no company name or identifying group on the display, but Google “Truthophobes,” a word seen at the bottom of the billboard, and you’ll find a range of websites rife with anti-Muslim messages.

“We do support free speech, but we do realize this is also rooted in bigotry,” said Kahtri.

“Peace and kindness” my ass! We’re just into the second week of Ramadan and already these “peace-loving” idiots are already out in full force, as they continue to rock the globe with increasing acts of terrorism as the promise of extra “benefits” for being a martyr over Muslims’ holy month is driving them to commit more acts of jihad for their depraved religion.

While Muslims in America continue to spew propaganda about their “peaceful” religion down our throats, three separate terror attacks since Ramadan began has already taken the lives of 149 people, with the city of Paris being targeted yet again after a psycho Muslim stormed the Notre Dame Cathedral on Tuesday with a knife. The Daily Caller reported:

The major attacks of Ramadan 2017 include twin suicide bombings in Baghdad and a massive suicide borne vehicle bomb in Afghanistan. An unconfirmed terrorist incident also occurred at a casino hotel in Manila earlier this week. These attacks occurred before a reported deadly incident on London Bridge Saturday.

The Baghdad bombings targeted both an ice cream shop and elderly pension distribution center. The ice cream shop was frequented by families with small children and killed 10. The first bombing killed 12, and nearly 100 were injured between the two blasts.

The second bombing in Afghanistan killed nearly 100 people and injured hundreds more. The massive suicide vehicle struck one of the safest areas of Kabul in Afghanistan and destroyed parts of the German embassy. Several German and U.S. citizens were killed in the attack. Afghan officials believe that Taliban elements headed by the Haqqani network are responsible for the attack.

A gunman also stormed a casino hotel resort in Manila Friday and set fire to a hotel while attempting to steal nearly $2 million in gaming chips. He engaged casino workers in a firefight and then appears to have killed himself. ISIS  claimed responsibility for the attack, which killed nearly 40 people. All casualties in the attack were caused by smoke inhalation by fire.

Kudos to this group known as Truthophobes for shining the light on the true meaning of Islam despite the backlash that they’ve received. Muslims are quickly learning that Americans are wide awake and not willing to be led to the slaughter like the idiots over in Europe, and if they think they’re going to easily take America down with their violent jihad they’ve got a whole other thing coming!

H/T [Breitbart]

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BREAKING! Marine Patrolling US Border Has A Terrifying Warning For Every American In Border States




To all of you out there who think those of us who supported, and voted for, then candidate Donald Trump because we are xenophobic and racist, here is your wake up call. A former United States Marine Patrolling the Mexico-Texas Border has a chilling message for you and all Americans.

“In an interview with Dennis Michael Lynch, a former U.S. Marine who served in the Middle East is now an active member of a border group that patrols the southern border. He is a former bomb expert trained by the Department of Defense. Known to his pals as “Talon,” he shared his thoughts about the “other than Mexicans” that have been coming through the border for years.

“The Chinese and Middle Eastern people coming through the border are not coming here to cut our lawns and wash dishes. They hate us with a passion,” said Talon. When referring to the Muslims who hate the U.S. he said, “We are the infidels and they think we deserve to die.”

DML asked him how long until another 9/11? Talon answered, “I’m shocked it hasn’t happened yet. Let me tell you that once they figure out how to get a nuke through the border, we will lose a U.S. city.”

There are congressional reports that reveal the drug cartels work with terror groups from the Middle East.”

All this isn’t news to those of us already living in border states. We see what’s coming in on a daily basis. Our cities are being overrun by gang crime like never before. The best of the best doesn’t just walk across our borders. These aren’t children with “Divinity in their Eyes” as Nancy Pelosi calls them. Since President Trump’s inauguration, there has been a sharp decrease in illegals crossing the border illegally, but we won’t be secure until the wall is built and we are able to stop them completely.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions sent official letters to the 9 different cities, counties and the whole state of California ordering them to stop the madness and let The Department of Homeland Security and ICE do their job. If not they will be punished by ceasing to send these 9 entities federal funds. I know my home state of California can’t survive long on its own although liberals and loony politicians actually believe it can. Maybe legalizing Marihuana in this state wasn’t such a great idea after all.

These people walking over our border are not coming here for better job opportunities at all. These people cannot stand America and will do everything they can to destroy us and our way of life. The left knows that the only way to destroy America is through political correctness coupled with multiculturalism.

If you have not read The Communist Takeover of America-45 Declared Goals, I suggest you look it up. The number one stated goal is, U.S. acceptance of coexistence as the only alternative to atomic war. 

We have seen the left use this argument before when stating the reasons for open borders and acceptance of illegals and Muslims. The argument they use is that these people who desire to kill us can be averted if we just coexist with them. Of course, that is absolute insanity, but we have seen that this tactic has worked over the last several years.

That is why we need to be on constant alert and push back against this dangerous rhetoric. We are aware that dangerous people have made their way into America and until they are found and deported pose a real threat. That is why we need President Trump’s border wall to be erected and ICE agents to be allowed to do their job properly.

Those that stand against Trump’s plans to protect our nation should be held accountable for their actions. We need to stand up against these leftist scum and demand that this wall is built sooner than later.

To all you Liberals out there, please, stop with the finger pointing and accusations. This isn’t about being bigoted, Islamophobic, Xenophobic, or whatever “phobic” you want to invent next. It’s about our very survival of as a nation, as a culture and as a people.  If you need to, pretend the bad people slipping in through the border are Christians and Jews. I’m sure if they were you would have no issue whatsoever in building a wall to stop them, but please to play with our security and very existence only because you believe in the madness that is Political Correctness.

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